Electric bikes made for last-mile delivery booming in South Africa

The report forecasts a substantial increase in the electric micro-mobility fleet used for last-mile deliveries, reaching an estimated 21,700 units by 2030. This represents a remarkable expansion of 17,900 vehicles over the next five years, a significant leap from the 3,800 units recorded at the close of 2024.

GreenCape’s analysis links this growth directly to the robust expansion of the online retail sector, which experienced a growth rate exceeding 29% in 2023 and is projected to maintain an annual increase of 20.4% through 2026. Based on this trajectory, the report assumes a sustained 20% annual growth rate for electric micro-mobility in the last-mile delivery segment until the end of the decade.

This surge in adoption translates to a substantial increase in market value, escalating from R244 million at the end of 2024 to an impressive R1.2 billion by 2030. This economic shift underscores the growing importance of electric vehicles in reshaping the logistics landscape.

While electric motorcycles offer the significant advantage of reduced fuel costs, the initial capital investment required for their purchase remains considerably higher than their internal combustion engine (ICE) counterparts. GreenCape’s report estimates the average costs for different electric micro-mobility options: R40,000 for an electric cargo bicycle, R90,000 for an electric motorcycle, and R150,000 for an electric three-wheeler. In stark contrast, a typical ICE motorcycle used by South African delivery drivers can be purchased for around R16,799.

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This capital disparity may present a temporary hurdle to widespread adoption in a developing industry. However, the long-term operational cost benefits of electric vehicles are compelling. GreenCape’s analysis over a seven-year period reveals that while the initial capital expenditure for an electric motorcycle is approximately five times that of an ICE motorcycle, its operational expenditure is more than four times lower. Over seven years, the operational cost of an electric motorcycle is estimated at R46,513, compared to R198,627 for an ICE equivalent, based on an annual mileage of 36,500km.

The business case for electric cargo bicycles is even more compelling, with an operational cost six times lower than an ICE motorcycle over seven years, despite a roughly double initial capital outlay. Electric three-wheelers, while having the highest initial cost at R150,000, offer operational costs comparable to electric cargo bicycles.

South African companies like MellowVans are already capitalizing on this growing demand, experiencing significant traction for their innovative three-wheeled electric vehicles designed specifically for last-mile cargo transport. MellowVans’ vehicles, built with a high percentage of local content in Stellenbosch, have gained European and British homologation and are utilized by major logistics and retail companies such as Takealot, DHL, and Woolies Dash. Their latest generation offers a range of up to 130km on a single charge and a substantial cargo capacity of 2,500 litres or 150kg. Notably, MellowVans’ operational cost analysis suggests significant savings compared to traditional petrol-powered motorcycles, further solidifying the economic and environmental advantages of electric micro-mobility in South Africa’s evolving delivery sector.