East Africa: Mediating Conflicts in the Horn

Ethiopia has long held a central role in regional politics, not only due to its geographical location but also because of its historical, political, and diplomatic significance.

In recent years, Ethiopia has sought to reposition itself as a pivotal peace broker in the often turbulent Horn of Africa. This initiative, driven by a combination of strategic interest, historical ties, and a desire to foster stability, reflects a broader ambition to lead diplomatic efforts and create a more integrated and peaceful region.

The country’s peace brokering and mediation initiative in the Horn of Africa is not new. Historically, the country has acted as both host and mediator in various regional conflicts, including in South Sudan and Somalia. However, the recent initiatives, especially since the reformist government led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power in 2018, have marked a renewed and vigorous push towards institutionalizing Ethiopia’s role in regional diplomacy. Abiy’s administration, inspired by a Pan-Africanist vision and seeking regional stability to support domestic transformation, has worked to reset relations with neighboring countries and mediate disputes that threaten the Horn’s already fragile peace.

One of the most notable diplomatic feats under this initiative was the peace deal between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2018. The two countries had remained in a state of conflict since the 1998-2000 border war, with tensions periodically escalating. The breakthrough in 2018 ended two decades of hostility and was seen as a symbol of a new diplomatic era in the region. Prime Minister Abiy’s leadership in brokering peace with Eritrea earned him the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 and was hailed globally as a significant step toward regional reconciliation. This move not only stabilized bilateral relations but also opened the door for broader engagement and mediation efforts involving other regional actors.

Following the Eritrea rapprochement, Ethiopia stepped up its involvement in South Sudan, where years of civil war had left the country divided and devastated. Ethiopia, as part of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), played an instrumental role in facilitating negotiations between the warring factions. Addis Ababa hosted several rounds of peace talks, and Ethiopia used its influence to push for compromises between South Sudan’s rival leaders. Although the peace process in South Sudan remains fragile and has faced several setbacks, Ethiopia’s engagement underscored its commitment to regional stability.

In Somalia, Ethiopia’s role has been more complex and sometimes controversial. As a frontline state impacted directly by the security situation in Somalia, Ethiopia has deployed troops under both bilateral arrangements and the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), now replaced by the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS). While its military engagement has drawn criticism from some Somali factions and observers, Ethiopia has concurrently worked through diplomatic channels to foster dialogue and support Somali-led reconciliation processes. The Ethiopian government has emphasized the need for a unified, peaceful Somalia as essential for the Horn’s overall security architecture.

Beyond bilateral interventions, Ethiopia has advocated for a more institutionalized approach to regional peace and security. As a founding member of IGAD, it has championed strengthening the organization’s mandate and capacity to resolve conflicts. Ethiopia has hosted numerous IGAD summits and worked closely with member states to advance initiatives such as the regional early warning system and mechanisms for preventive diplomacy. It has also supported proposals for a joint security arrangement among Horn countries, seeking to establish frameworks for collective response to shared threats like terrorism, piracy, and transboundary conflicts.

In the wake of that internal resolution, Ethiopia has reinvigorated its regional diplomacy, emphasizing reconciliation and cooperation. The government has re-engaged with Sudan, despite tensions over border disputes and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). The GERD has been a source of contention between Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt, primarily due to concerns over water security and downstream impacts. While these disputes have at times escalated into sharp diplomatic confrontations, Ethiopia has continued to advocate for African Union-led dialogue mechanisms as the preferred means of resolving such issues. This aligns with Addis Ababa’s broader view that African problems require African solutions, a theme consistently present in its regional mediation strategy.

Ethiopia’s peace initiative also includes a strategic economic dimension. By fostering peace and cooperation, the Ethiopian government seeks to unlock regional trade, investment, and infrastructure development. The country’s ambitious development agenda, which includes improving connectivity through roads, rail, and ports, relies heavily on stable and cooperative neighbors. Initiatives such as the Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia Transport Corridor (LAPSSET) and regional power-sharing agreements underscore the symbiotic relationship between peace and economic integration. Ethiopia’s leadership argues that shared prosperity can help mitigate the drivers of conflict and create incentives for long-term stability.

Moreover, Ethiopia has sought to position itself as a moral and intellectual leader in regional peacebuilding. Addis Ababa, home to the African Union headquarters, has hosted numerous international conferences and forums on peace, security, and development. The Ethiopian government and think tanks based in the capital have contributed to policy dialogues on conflict resolution, regional cooperation, and inclusive governance. By aligning diplomatic efforts with intellectual leadership, Ethiopia aims to shape the normative frameworks guiding regional peace processes.

Despite its ambitious agenda, Ethiopia’s mediation efforts must contend with shifting alliances, external interventions, and the legacy of mistrust among Horn of Africa states. The region remains one of the most conflict-prone in the world, with frequent political instability, ethnic tensions, and external geopolitical interests complicating peacebuilding efforts. The rivalry between global powers such as the United States, China, and Gulf countries has also influenced regional dynamics, sometimes undermining local mediation initiatives. In this context, Ethiopia must navigate a delicate balance between asserting leadership and building consensus among its neighbors.