Bombing the Framework | Alhurra
The United States has resumed striking Iran, yet both sides continue to treat the June 17 memorandum as the framework for negotiations. That contradiction now hangs over the region: the ceasefire has collapsed, but the diplomatic process it created has persisted, with scant clarity on what it can yield.
As Washington prepares to welcome Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi this week, the rekindled U.S.-Iran conflict is reshaping the region. Baghdad is confronting Tehran over its network of armed factions in Iraq, Iran is signaling that it rather than America should be the Gulf’s dominant power, and Israel is lobbying against a potential U.S. decision to return Turkey to the F-35 fighter jet program.
Inside Iran, questions also linger over who is really in charge. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s absence from his father’s funeral fueled speculation over how power is being exercised in Tehran, yet even as Iranian government and military leaders project confidence and seek to convince their neighbors that the regional balance has shifted in Iran’s favor.
Also this week: Iraq’s government seeks to enforce an end to the era of armed groups operating outside the state, while President Donald Trump delivers a stark warning over any future Iranian assassination plot against him.
Joseph Kawly, Mustafa Saadoon, Yehia Qasim, Abubakar Siddique and Houda Elboukili contributed to the Agenda this week.
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Washington Signals
Declared Dead, Still Standing
Vessels identified by U.S. Central Command as Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps boats before they were struck in a new wave of U.S. military strikes against Iran on Tuesday, after three tankers were hit by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz, in this still image taken from video released July 7, 2026. U.S. Central Command/Handout via REUTERS THIS IMAGE HAS BEEN SUPPLIED BY A THIRD PARTY.
America has struck Iran four times since President Donald Trump declared the ceasefire over. The Memorandum of Understanding, the 14-point framework signed June 17 that ended four months of war, reopened the Strait of Hormuz, and set a 60-day window for nuclear negotiations, is still in force. Nobody has explained how both things can be true at once.
This morning, Trump told Fox News that a previously undisclosed agreement had been reached and then broken by Iran. “We had a deal. It was a done deal. And then they broke it. They always break it. We’ve had 10 deals with these people.” He then posted on Truth Social that the United States would become “THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT,” demand a 20 percent charge on all cargo passing through, and reinstate what he called “the Iranian blockade” targeting Iranian vessels and Iran’s customers. CENTCOM simultaneously announced a fourth round of strikes targeting air defense systems, coastal radar installations, missile and drone sites, and small boats across southern Iran. Iran’s joint military command warned that “if the attacks continue, the flames of war will engulf all the countries of the region.”
And yet the diplomatic channel has not closed. A senior U.S. official told CNBC on July 10 that the memorandum was “performance-based” and Iran’s actions represented “failed performance,” while confirming talks would continue. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met his Omani counterpart in Muscat on July 11, and their joint readout explicitly cited Article 5 of the memorandum as the governing framework for Hormuz shipping discussions. A diplomat with knowledge of recent mediation efforts told Axios that “it’s clear both sides want to come back to the MOU.” Qatar is still holding $6 billion in frozen Iranian assets that cannot be disbursed or returned without the memorandum being either implemented or formally terminated.
The ceasefire may be over. The document is not.
Exclusive
Iraq-Iran Tensions
Iraqi PM Al-Zaidi during the meeting he held with Araghchi in Baghdad on July 28.
Ahead of his visit to Washington this week, Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi confronted senior Iranian officials in late June over Tehran’s support for armed factions operating outside state control. The talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani came as Baghdad prepares for the imminent departure of U.S.-led coalition forces from Iraq.
During his meeting with Araghchi, Zaidi directly challenged Iran’s role in Iraq’s security affairs. “Would you accept me controlling your security or military file?” he asked, according to Iraqi sources. “Would you allow me to establish armed factions?” When Araghchi said no, Zaidi replied: “Then why do you allow yourselves to strengthen armed factions at the expense of the state?”
The meetings come amid growing U.S. pressure on Baghdad to rein in Iran-linked militias and enforce a state monopoly on weapons. Some factions have shown signs of complying, but Kataib Hezbollah and others continue to resist, tying any relinquishing of its weapons to the departure of the U.S.-led coalition forces.
Read the full MBN exclusive here
Israel Watch
Israel Opposes F-35 Sale to Turkey
The sale of F-35 fighter jets to Turkey is raising several concerns in Israel.
Israel is pushing back against the United States selling F-35 fighter jets to Turkey after President Donald Trump signaled he wants to revive Ankara’s participation in the fighter jet program. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned the move would “destroy the balance of power in the Middle East,” and other Israeli officials said it could undermine Israel’s long-standing military edge in the region.
Israeli analysts say the concerns extend beyond the aircraft themselves. “The air force is one of Israel’s most important military assets,” Gallia Lindenstrauss of Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies told MBN. “Israel therefore seeks to maintain its qualitative advantage in this domain.”
Any sale would require congressional approval and would depend on resolving Turkey’s dispute with Washington over its Russian-made S-400 air defense system, which led to Ankara’s removal from the F-35 program seven years ago. The debate is already becoming a test of how far Trump is prepared to go to reset relations with Turkey – and what that could mean for Israel.
Iran Watch
The Missing Man
Mourners gather around a vehicle carrying the coffin of Iran’s late Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, alongside the coffins of members of his family, on the day of his burial following a mass funeral procession in the northeastern city of Mashhad, Iran. REUTERS
The absence of Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, from his father’s funeral has fueled speculation about the country’s succession just as Tehran seeks to project stability in the wake of Ali Khamenei’s assassination and the punishing bombing campaign of Israel and the U.S. Analysts told MBN the absence may point to concerns about Mojtaba’s health or his ability to project authority during wartime, but could also reflect extraordinary security precautions.
“My assumption is that if the regime could have had him appear in public, they would have done so for the purposes of legitimacy,” Florida International University professor Eric Lob said, arguing that the funeral would have been the natural moment to introduce Iran’s new leader to the public.
Other experts warned against reading too much into Mojtaba’s absence, noting that power in Iran extends well beyond the supreme leader himself.
Regional Watch
Iran Asserts Dominance over Gulf
A delegation of officials from Qatar attended the funeral ceremony for Iran’s late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran on July 3. Reuters
Iran is increasingly signaling that it expects its U.S.-allied Arab Gulf neighbors to accept Tehran as the dominant military power in the region and reduce their dependence on Washington. Since the war began in late February, Iranian government officials have paired military pressure with increasingly assertive public messaging directed at the six Gulf Cooperation Council states.
The campaign has included attacks on Gulf countries, continued disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and symbolic messaging during the funeral of former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, which was attended by delegations from several Arab states. Iranian officials have also argued that regional security should be built on cooperation with Tehran rather than U.S. military guarantees.
The increasingly confident rhetoric suggests Iran sees the war as having strengthened, rather than weakened, its regional standing.
Featured Conversation
End of an Era
Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi
Iraqi government spokesman Haider al-Aboudi spoke with Baghdad Hour, an MBN television program, about the changing security landscape in Iraq.
On the new Iraqi government’s anti-militia campaign: “The reasons that once necessitated carrying arms have disappeared. Today, the need for weapons outside the authority of the state has come to an end.”
On corruption arrests: “The government will continue pursuing corruption cases without exception. There are no red lines except the national interest.”
Quote of the day
A renewed conflict is in no one’s interest. Pakistan urges all parties to exercise maximum restraint and to honor their commitments under the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding.
— Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, official statement, Islamabad, July 9, 2026