Africa’s strategic realignment in a multipolar world – The Mail & Guardian

African states must embrace a strategy centred on resilience and self-reliance.

The global power structure is shifting away from the long-standing unipolar dominance of the West, ushering in a multipolar world where emerging economies are playing an increasingly significant role. Historical and economic shifts have shaped Africa’s position in the world. Historically marginalised in global affairs because of colonialism, economic exploitation, and global power dynamics, Africa now faces the challenge of navigating this rapidly changing environment.

The current moment presents an unprecedented opportunity for Africa to take control of its economic future. The geopolitical competition between and among global powers provides a silver lining for African governments because they can leverage this competition to get more resources from the competitors, such as investment flows, development assistance, infrastructure funding, and better trade agreements to boost their socioeconomic growth.

Despite lacking major weapon manufacturing facilities, Africa remains the world’s largest recipient of arms and ammunition given that most of the ongoing armed conflicts

globally are on the continent. Paradoxically, while the continent is home to the highest number of peacekeepers, it also faces the greatest number of conflicts globally. Moreover, despite possessing the world’s largest youth population, vast land resources, abundant sunshine, significant water bodies, and agriculture as a central pillar of its economies, Africa remains the world’s poorest region and continues to suffer from severe food insecurity. These stark contradictions highlight the urgent need for Africa to address the systemic problems of armed conflict, climate change and underdevelopment, underscoring the considerable work required for the continent’s economic and social emancipation.

The emerging world order

Africa’s development trajectory has been shaped by historical forces such as the transatlantic slave trade, colonialism and the Cold War, as well as contemporary issues like economic nationalism and trade restrictions. As the world transitions into a multipolar order, Africa faces a unique set of problems. These issues not only stem from the legacy of past exploitation but also arise from the complexities of navigating a rapidly changing global landscape. In this new era, Africa’s ability to harness opportunities and mitigate risks will be crucial for its growth and development. The transition to a multipolar world order presents several challenges for Africa, including:

1. Geopolitical instability: The shift to a multipolar world order brings with it a more complex and often unstable geopolitical environment. Africa, already grappling with issues such as political instability, conflict and fragile state institutions, may face increased competition for influence and resources from global powers. This could further complicate efforts to establish lasting peace and security on the continent.

2. Economic dependence and inequality: Africa has long been subjected to economic exploitation through colonialism and the transatlantic slave trade, which has left many countries reliant on primary commodity exports and foreign aid.  In a multipolar world, Africa may continue to struggle with the challenges of diversifying its economies, building sustainable industries, and addressing the deep-seated inequality between countries and within countries.

3. Foreign intervention and influence: As global powers compete for influence in Africa, there is a risk that external intervention could increase, potentially destabilising the region. Whether through military presence, economic influence, or soft power tactics, African countries may find it difficult to navigate between competing foreign interests without sacrificing their sovereignty or development goals. To avoid becoming a pawn in this strategic competition, Africa must assert its own agency, ensuring that its interests take precedence in international relations.

4. Trade barriers and economic nationalism: Trade restrictions and economic nationalism are likely to become more prevalent as states prioritise their domestic industries and strategic interests.  This could harm Africa’s trade relationships, limit access to foreign markets, and disrupt the continent’s efforts to integrate into the global economy. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) holds promise, but it may face significant challenges in realising its full potential amidst rising protectionism.

5. Technology and digital divide: Technology and digital innovation are key to economic and social advancement. However, Africa faces significant barriers to technology adoption, including inadequate infrastructure, limited access to education, and a lack of investment in research and development. Without deliberate investment in indigenous innovation and policy frameworks, As as global powers invest heavily in technological advancements, Africa risks being left behind in the digital age, exacerbating inequality within and between states. Our digital vulnerabilities — ranging from weak cyber infrastructure to overreliance on foreign tech — undermine national sovereignty and decision-making autonomy. The continent must avoid becoming a passive testing ground for foreign precision systems or cyber warfare experiments.

6. Climate change and environmental degradation: Africa is highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, such as desertification, extreme weather events and rising sea levels. The transition to a multipolar world could exacerbate this issue, as global powers focus more on short-term geopolitical interests than on long-term environmental sustainability. Additionally, African countries may face difficulties in accessing the financial and technological resources needed to mitigate climate change and adapt to its effects.

7. Social unrest and migration: Economic instability, political dysfunction and external intervention could fuel social unrest, leading to increased migration both in Africa and to other regions. This could result in a “brain drain” of skilled workers, as well as increased pressure on already strained public services in host countries. Moreover, migration could contribute to tension between African countries and destination regions, such as Europe, further complicating Africa’s relationship with the global community.

8. Security and terrorism: As the global power balance shifts, Africa may find itself in the crosshairs of global security concerns, particularly in regions already plagued by terrorist organisations and  insurgent armed groups. The rise of non-state actors, as well as regional conflicts, presents significant challenges for African governments, which may struggle to maintain internal security and sovereignty in the face of external pressures. The presence of global powers in Africa could exacerbate tensions arising from strategic competition over influence and access and can also fuel violent extremism from resistant groups.

Embracing Afro-resilience

Kwame Nkrumah, Ghana’s visionary leader, urged Africa to “face neither East nor West, but face forward.” In doing so, the president called for African states to assert their collective power and sovereignty, charting their own course toward progress and unity. To realise this vision, African governments must maintain full autonomy over the continent’s peace, security, economic, and development agendas — this is the essence of Afro-resilience. Simply put, Afro-resilience refers to the capacity of African countries and their peoples to adapt, recover, and flourish in the face of both internal and external challenges, drawing strength from their rich history and unyielding resolve.

Afro-resilience is Africa’s capacity to adapt, recover, and thrive amidst internal and external challenges. It involves strengthening economic, social, political, and environmental systems to foster sustainable development. This concept calls for a departure from dependency on external powers and a move towards self-sustaining growth.

Strategic recommendations

To navigate the emerging multipolar world and ensure sustainable economic growth, Africa must adopt a bold, multifaceted strategy focused on the following pillars:

1. Industrialisation and value addition

Africa must transition from being a raw material exporter to a continent that adds value to its resources. This requires investment in infrastructure, technology and human capital. But industrialisation is hindered by inadequate energy supply. To address this, regional cooperation mechanisms like the Southern African Power Pool can be leveraged to share energy resources. More so Morocco’s renewable energy initiatives, such as the Noor Ouarzazate Solar Complex, serve as exemplary models for sustainable energy solutions.

2. Optimising intra-African trade and regional integration

The AfCFTA offers a platform for economic integration. Full ratification and implementation of the AfCFTA agreement are crucial. Additionally, reducing tariffs, conducting market surveys to identify value chain opportunities, and ensuring access to markets for small and medium entrepreneurs will enhance trade within the continent.

3. Transformative leadership and accountable governance

Effective governance is essential for Africa’s development. For this reason leaders must prioritise transparency, accountability and the rule of law. Transformative leadership that is ethical and visionary will foster investor confidence and promote sustainable development.

4. Harnessing strategic alliances

Given the shifting geopolitical landscape that is unpredictable and unprecedented, Africa should strengthen relationships with emerging economies in the Global South. South-South cooperation can provide alternative sources of capital, technology and trade partnerships that align with Africa’s development goals.

5. Financial sovereignty

Reducing reliance on external debt and increasing domestic resource mobilisation will empower African states to make independent economic decisions. Institutions like the African Development Bank and Afreximbank play pivotal roles in supporting trade finance and industrialisation efforts.

6. Sustainable development and green growth

Emphasising sustainability in development plans will position Africa as a leader in the green economy. Investing in renewable energy, sustainable agriculture, and green infrastructure can unlock new growth avenues while addressing climate change challenges.

     7.    Leveraging indigenous knowledge

Indigenous knowledge, rooted in generations of communal wisdom, offers practical solutions for sustainable development, education and environmental stewardship. Yet traditional patent laws fail to protect their collective nature. To harness this resource, African states must document and preserve traditional practices, integrate them into development strategies and empower people. Strengthening national legal frameworks, endorsing community protocols and supporting international agreements such as the Nagoya Protocol are key to ensuring fair protection and benefit-sharing. Valuing indigenous knowledge is not only about justice, it is a pathway to resilience and self-reliance.

Africa’s future in a multipolar world depends on its ability to realign its strategies and embrace opportunities for transformation. The transition to a multipolar world order presents Africa with both challenges and opportunities. The decline of traditional Western aid has prompted African countries to pivot towards self-sufficiency. In 2024, remittances alone contributed $100 billion to Africa’s economy, surpassing US aid by more than eight times. This shift underscores the continent’s growing economic agency and the importance of leveraging domestic resources and partnerships within the Global South.

Ultimately, Afro-resilience is about empowering Africa to shape its destiny, assert its agency on the world stage and overcome the challenges of the modern era while honouring its diverse heritage and potential. By focusing on industrialisation, regional integration, transformative leadership, strategic alliances, financial sovereignty and sustainable development, Africa can realign itself to thrive in this new global landscape. A unified, forward-looking Africa — one that learns from its historical experiences and adapts to changing global dynamics — can thrive in this new world order. Although the African Union has set its vision to be achieved by the year 2063, the time for action is now.

Dan Kuwali is a senior research fellow at the Africa Institute of South Africa, the Human Sciences Research Council, and extraordinary professor of international law at the Centre for Human Rights, University of Pretoria.