Africa doesn’t want aid, it needs debt relief

• International aid and loans to Africa are based on a false (mathematical) statement; Africa needs development aid – False.
• Net financial flows to African countries dropped 18% (2020/22) -True.
• Africa paying more to service debts than development aid it recieves – True.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s aid cuts will fatally affect developing countries where millions of people rely on the aid for their livelihoods at a time when huge debt servicing costs pose even worse effect on their lives. “Analysis also finds growing debt service payments are rapidly outpacing aid and investments in all developing countries,” reveals a One Campaign report.

Titled, ‘Net finance flows to developing countries turned negative in 2023’ the report warns that; “Developing country debt levels have more than doubled since 2009, and the cost of servicing that debt has skyrocketed.” According to the report; “African countries are projected to spend $81 billion on debt service between 2023-2025, with one-fifth of those payments going to China.”

While all eyes are on the ongoing Trump aid cuts, attention is drawn away from the fact that its not  the US alone that has cut back on aid to delevoping countries, it’s most of the G7 and the EU as well. “In 2024, the EU, France, Germany announced aid cuts totaling nearly US $9 billion,” reads the report.

In fact, the report points out that overall, aid donors spend nearly one in five of their aid dollars at home. That been the case, the result is that; “Net financial flows to African countries dropped by 18 percent from 2020-202, from US $56 billion to US $40 billion.”

What this means is, Africa (and other developing countries) are paying out more money to international donors than the development aid they receive from said donors. The report goes on to unmask a disturbing truth: More than one in five emerging markets and developing countries paid more to service their debt in 2022 than they received in external financing.

Worse still, as of this year, it is “… more than one in three African countries that are paying more to service their debts than the financial aid they receive. This is the irony of the starving farmer; “A man is dying of hunger yet he is a farmer and his farm is full of food!

Clearly something is a miss, unbalanced; Africa is paying out more money for loans, than it is receiving in aid, an unbalanced equation if ever there was one. Trump aid cuts: False mathematical statement. The irony of the starving farmer can be explained by simple math, it is a case of conditional statements.

In this equation, we have a false premise leading to a false conclusion which tells us that the original statement of fact was actually false to start with.

The paradox of this unbalanced equation is that; the predominant misconception: Africa cannot afford to fund its own development (false premise) and so, it needs development aid (false conclusion) and mathematically speaking, this wrong conclusion is the result of the original false statement, ‘Africa needs aid to develop’ and, numbers don’t lie-Truth!

So, the prevailing international policies of aid and loans to Africa are actually based on a false statement and as a result; “Net finance flows to developing countries turned negative in 2023,” the One Campaign survey reports.

According to the report, “Net finance flows fell 48 per cent in 2022 their lowest level since the Global Financial Crisis.”

Proving the ‘false statement’ on which international aid and loans to Africa is based on, the report explains that, net financial flows turning negative means; “…debt service repayments to official and private lenders have surpassed external inflows to governments.”

So let’s solve for X. To balance this equation, the solution is simple, Africa needs no aid, rather it needs debt relief.

Here are the facts:

False – Africa needs aid because it cannot afford to pay for its own development.

Truth – Africa pays more to service debts than the development aid it receives.

Conclusion: Africa can afford its own development (ceterisperibus, debt servicing).

In the words of Ndidi Okonkwo Nwuneli, President and CEO of The ONE Campaign; “The G7 and EU say they are prioritizing stronger partnerships with Africa, but ONE’s research shows that their words don’t match their actions.”

“The need for increased investments that drive economic growth and healthy lives in Africa has never been more important, but many partner countries are looking inward instead of forward,” the CEO attests.

Ahead of last year’s G7 summit in Italy, he said; “G7 and EU leadership must take decisive action to unlock more low-interest financing and speed up debt relief.”

Also Read: With WFP’s southern Africa office shutdown, is Trump’s ‘America First’ policy justified?

Trump cuts vs international financial aid

Net financial transfers to developing countries have fallen from their peak of US$225 billion in 2014 to US$51 billion in 2022, the One Campaign report cites. It goes on to predict that; “New projections from ONE show that flows will fall by over US$100 billion in the next two years.”

True to the fact, over US$50 billion was paid out by developing countries to international donors in 2024. Even more disturbing if not outright upsetting is the fact; “Aid donors are celebrating new statistics showing record global aid numbers. Yet they spent nearly one in five of their aid dollars at home (while) aid to Africa has flatlined,” the CEO decried.

Consider this: In 2022, 26 countries with a total population of 1.3 billion people – including Angola, Brazil, Pakistan, and Vietnam – paid a total of US$48 billion more to service their external debts than they received in new external finance, the report reveals.

It goes on to warn that: “Unless financing flows increase, this number could increase to 44 countries in 2025, paying US$102 billion in negative net transfers.”

Worse still the report uncovers that; “Nearly one in every five aid dollars (19%) never left donor countries in 2023. Seven donors last year spent more than one-quarter of their total aid on refugees at home. The UK spent nearly one-third of its 2023 foreign aid budget in the UK!

What do these numbers look like on the ground, here is the apocalyptic picture painted by the brush strokes of the false statement ‘Africa needs aid to develop’ and the colors that are used are in the hue of international loans.