AFRICA/MALI – A possible “Syrian scenario” for Mali?

AFRICA/MALI – A possible “Syrian scenario” for Mali?

Monday, 4 May 2026

Bamako (Fides News Agency) – Is a scenario similar to Syria emerging in Mali? That is, the action of a jihadist actor capable of uniting other opposition groups around him to replace the current military junta. The question arises after the series of joint offensives carried out on April 25 by Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM, “Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims”) together with the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA). Several important cities in the country, particularly Bamako, Kati, Konna, Mopti, Gao, and Kidal, were the target of simultaneous and coordinated attacks. These assaults resulted in the deaths of military personnel and civilians, including the Minister of State, Minister of Defense, and Minister of Veterans Affairs, Lieutenant General Sadio Camara.

The two groups that carried out the attacks were, until recently, on opposing sides. JNIM, affiliated with Al-Qaeda, is the successor to the jihadist groups that expelled the Tuareg separatists from northern Mali in 2012. The FLA, formed from the merger of several separatist groups, was still fighting JNIM jihadists in 2014. Now, however, both are carrying out coordinated, simultaneous attacks, and in some cases, side by side with former enemies. Although the two groups are besieging the Malian capital, they do not appear capable of capturing it. Only a political agreement that includes a broad part of the opposition to the military junta could, by offering an alternative, create the conditions for real change. The fact that the Attorney General of the Bamako Military Court has announced the opening of an investigation against active-duty and reserve army officers for complicity in the planning and execution of the attacks seems to indicate the existence of contacts between jihadists, separatists, and some members of the junta.

The Attorney General’s statement also mentions the involvement of several political figures, such as Dr. Oumar Mariko, a well-known left-wing opposition figure and co-founder of the African Solidarity for Democracy and Independence (SADI) party, of which he is Secretary General. If the military court’s accusations are confirmed, a broad political—more than military—alliance would be formed, aimed at offering an alternative to the junta, in which JNIM would play a central role due to its armed strength. This hypothesis is reinforced by the kidnapping in Bamako of one of the junta’s main critics, lawyer Mountaga Tall, who had defended several military officers arrested in recent months on charges of “attempting to destabilize state institutions.” This would be a similar, though not identical, scenario to that which occurred with the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria at the end of 2024, where a jihadist group formerly affiliated with Al Qaeda overthrew the Assad regime and subsequently formed a government with limited inclusion of other political forces. Several unknowns remain in this scenario: the attitude of the Russian paramilitary group, the Africa Corps, which supports the Malian junta; the reaction of the other members of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES, comprised of Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali); and finally, the presence of the Islamic State, a jihadist organization that is a rival of Al-Qaeda and, therefore, of JNIM. (L.M.) (Fides News Agency, 4/5/2026)

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