Will President Putin mobilise half a million Russians after September’s election?

Vladimir Putin could order the mobilisation of between 300,000 and 500,000 people after Russia’s parliamentary election in September, according to Ukrainian intelligence.

Videos have appeared on Russian social media showing men who say they have received call-up papers and are being encouraged to sign military contracts rather than risk being forcibly mobilised later.

Ukraine believes a new call-up could begin in early October, after voting in Russia’s State Duma election ends on 20 September.

The theory is that Mr Putin would wait until after the poll to avoid an unpopular mobilisation damaging support for his pro-Kremlin allies.

There is no concrete evidence that he has decided to proceed. A Russian breakthrough in the Donbas could also reduce the Kremlin’s need for more troops, but the pressure could grow if casualties remain high and the battlefield does not move decisively in Moscow’s favour.

Russia’s manpower problem

Russia is estimated to be suffering about 31,000 casualties a month and is only just recruiting enough people to replace them.

The Kremlin has used a combination of pressure and increasingly large financial incentives to persuade men to sign military contracts.

Offers vary between regions, but recruits can receive just under $90,000 for a year’s service. 

Other incentives include debt relief and subsidised housing, while families can receive up to $36,000 if a serviceperson is killed.

Nearly 200,000 men have reportedly signed contracts so far in 2026, taking the total since the full-scale invasion to about 1.3 million.

However, the estimated recruitment rate has fallen from around 1,200 people a day in 2025 to about 900 in 2026.

Mr Putin can either continue paying increasingly large sums to attract volunteers or repeat the mobilisation announced in September 2022.

The decree authorising that call-up was never revoked, meaning the existing system could be expanded relatively quickly.

What would another mobilisation look like?

Russia’s 2022 mobilisation was shambolic, and hundreds of thousands of Russians left the country after it was announced.

The Kremlin would probably attempt a more gradual process this time.

It has since digitised military records, introduced electronic summonses and created databases that make it harder for men to avoid the authorities.

Further mobilisation would not necessarily make Russian forces more effective in combat.

It could, however, give commanders room to rotate combat units, replenish their ranks and maintain pressure on Ukraine.

The move would also carry an economic cost because Russia is already suffering a serious shortage of workers.

Andrei Kartapolov, chairman of the State Duma’s Defence Committee, has dismissed the mobilisation claim as a product of President Volodymyr Zelensky’s imagination.

Russian officials issued similar denials before the September 2022 mobilisation, which damaged Mr Putin’s popularity and prompted hundreds of thousands of Russians to leave the country.

Reports have already emerged of Russians buying property in Armenia and Georgia in preparation for another possible exodus.

Whether Mr Putin acts may ultimately depend on three things: Russia’s casualties, the continuing decline in voluntary recruitment and whether its forces achieve a decisive breakthrough before October.