England-Argentina World Cup semifinal odds: Three Lions favored against Lionel Messi’s team

The World Cup semifinals were both tantalizing affairs on paper. Spain versus France was a meeting of two previous winners and European neighbors. England versus Argentina also features two previous winners, but this match has a much more interesting history to it.

England is favored against Argentina, but this one is viewed as very close. England opened with -120 odds on BetMGM and DraftKings to advance, while Argentina opened at -105. It had moved in England’s direction for a bit, but has since tightened up again.

The winner will take on Spain in the final after La Roja completely shut down France’s venerated attack.

England-Argentina

Time: Wednesday, 3 p.m. ET

TV: Fox (English), Telemundo (Spanish)

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta

Unlike France and Spain, which have been mostly in control en route to the semifinals, England and Argentina endured plenty of drama to get here. England trailed in the second half against DR Congo, survived a red card to beat Mexico at the Estadio Azteca and needed extra time to get past Norway. Argentina got through via extra time against Cape Verde in arguably the best match of the tournament, then had a memorable 3-2 comeback against Egypt and yet again needed extra time to beat Switzerland in the quarterfinal Saturday.

There’s no reason things will be any less tense now.

England and Argentina have a history on and off the field. The Falklands War of 1982 is still preventing English referees from officiating Argentina games. Four years later in the World Cup quarterfinal against England, Diego Maradona scored two of the most famous goals in the history of the sport. When both goals have specific names, you know they were good (“The Hand of God” and “The Goal of the Century”).

Of course, none of the players on either squad were alive for either incident.

This year’s meeting is a clash of styles. Argentina controls the ball well and presses hard, but everything in the attack goes through Lionel Messi. Messi has eight goals and two assists this tournament, but his streak of nine World Cup matches with a goal ended in the 3-1 win against Switzerland.

England plays with a faster and sometimes more direct style and has been carried by Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham, who each have six goals. Bellingham has scored twice in each of the last two games.

In a World Cup of superstars, both teams have had their top players deliver.

In England’s and Argentina’s knockout matches, both squads have scored in all six matches. Even with that stat, the odds of both teams scoring in the semifinal are virtually a toss-up. DraftKings favors yes, while BetMGM slightly favors no, but both sportsbooks are giving minus odds to yes and no.

Under 2.5 goals is also solidly favored. Despite the fireworks these teams have produced in the knockout stage, the odds are saying to expect a tight, low-scoring semifinal.

Best bets

Mike Hume: Argentina to win the World Cup, +450 (FanDuel)

This has been a storybook World Cup. It’s everything FIFA and Gianni Infantino could have wished for and they’ve gotten it all. Next up in that fairy tale script? A rematch of France and Argentina in the final.

I actually think FIFA might prefer England back in the final, but Argentina’s destiny has seemed written in the stars after all their narrow escapes. I expect Messi in full form for both the semis and the final. Now’s the last chance to get on La Albiceleste roller coaster with the value this good. And hey, if they lose, it’s also the last time to get on board! To paraphrase noted Roman philosopher Maximus Meridius, have you not been entertained? By Argentina and Messi, I certainly have.

Dean Jones: Both teams to score, -106 (bet365)

It is possible to know exactly how this one will play out because there is a high chance that it becomes a very emotional game. But we have seen that both teams are vulnerable at the back, and can also conjure up magical moments. Backing both teams to score might not be a lucrative bet, but it should provide some success.

Dan Santaromita: Both teams to score, -106 (bet365)

I’m copying Dean’s pick, but I don’t want to get more creative than this. Both teams have scored in every knockout match involving either of these teams. Why would that change now?

Picks records