Crimea was Russia’s stronghold. Now it’s a vulnerability. – POLITICO

According to Refat Chubarov, head of the Crimean Tatar Mejlis — a governing body outlawed by Russian authorities and now based in Kyiv — the peninsula’s indigenous population should be prepared to face even greater difficulty moving forward. He advised preparing emergency stocks of food and medicine, keeping away from Russian military installations and making sure to have a place to shelter from attacks.

“We don’t know how this will end,” he said.

But could it end with the peninsula’s restoration to Ukraine? The last time that seemed possible was during Ukraine’s much-hailed 2023 counteroffensive, and any hopes since have been tempered by the country’s failure to shift the front line at the time.

“[People in Crimea] have some optimism that this time it could end with liberation. But they also say, ‘don’t trick us like you did in 2023,’” said Chubarov.

Russia prepared militarily, economically, through education and propaganda to take Crimea for decades, observed Pavlenko. Ukraine must use a similarly broad array of tactics, he said. “We have always said that Crimea is Ukraine, and Ukraine will use all methods to get Crimea back. Crimea can’t be returned by military means alone … We are applying military pressure now to give our diplomats the chance to sit at the negotiating table and say: ‘We are not leaving Crimea out.’”

Zagorodnyuk believes Ukraine has perhaps a year to press the technological advantage that is now making it possible to pressure Russia. “Of course, [Russia] will copy us eventually,” he said. “We certainly can’t afford to waste time.”

Indeed, this could be a window of opportunity for Ukraine to take back some of the southern territory Russia has held since 2022. But while Ukraine hopes to make the peninsula even more difficult and expensive for Russia to hold than it already is, it will likely be just as difficult and expensive for Ukraine to hold.

“I do believe that the liberation of Crimea is possible,” said Zagorodnyuk. “But not in the immediate future.”