World Cup odds, best bets for Friday’s matches including France-Norway

Group I was circled as the closest thing this World Cup has to a group of death. With France, Norway and Senegal, that group has largely delivered with high-scoring matches featuring goals from the biggest stars.

Now, France and Norway meet in a star-studded, highly anticipated matchup while Senegal fights for its life against Iraq.

Here’s a look at what is at stake for each of the 12 teams in action on Friday. If you’re placing bets or in a pick ’em pool, this is your guide on how the teams are likely to play given the scenarios they face. Advancement percentages are from The Athletic’s World Cup predictor.

Group I

Norway vs. France

Standings: France (6 points, 1st), Norway (6 points, 2nd)

Time: 3 p.m. ET

TV: Fox (English), Telemundo (Spanish)

Venue: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Mass.

France scenarios: Wins group with a win or draw, already advanced

Norway scenarios: Wins group with a win, already advanced

This is arguably the best matchup of the group stage, especially after both teams won each of their first two games. France has looked like, well, France, and is the current favorite to win it all. Norway has lived up to its billing as a dark-horse contender. Kylian Mbappé and Erling Haaland have both scored four goals so far, scoring twice in each match so far.

France appears to be a fully operational Death Star, and Norway has the player who most resembles the hulking figure of Darth Vader.

Norway needs to win to win the group, while France only needs a draw, but there doesn’t appear to be a major benefit to doing so. Neither team would play a group winner in the Round of 32. In the Round of 16, the group winner would be paired with Germany and the runner-up with Brazil. Pick your poison.

Senegal vs. Iraq

Standings: Senegal (0 points, 3rd), Iraq (0 points, 4th)

Time: 3 p.m. ET

TV: FS1 (English), Universo (Spanish)

Venue: BMO Field, Toronto

Senegal scenarios: Could advance with a win (77%), eliminated with a draw or loss

Iraq scenarios: Unlikely to advance with a win (5%), eliminated with a draw or loss

Senegal entered this tournament with high expectations, but has lost its first two matches. Such is the draw of being in the same group as France and suddenly strong Norway. The Africans can still advance, but may need to run up the score a bit.

A win gets Senegal to three points, which puts the team squarely on the bubble to advance as a third-place team. Entering with a minus-3 goal differential makes things dicey. Any win puts Senegal ahead of Scotland (3 points, minus-3 differential), but a two-goal win also puts them ahead of South Korea (3 points, minus-1 differential) on goals scored. Each goal could matter.

The same goes even more so for Iraq, which also must win to have a chance, but enters with a deeper goal differential hole (minus-6) to dig out of. This game could be open as both teams go for it.

Group H

Uruguay vs. Spain

Standings: Spain (4 points, 1st), Uruguay (2 points, 2nd)

Time: 8 p.m. ET

TV: Fox (English), Telemundo (Spanish)

Venue: Estadio Akron, Guadalajara

Spain scenarios: Wins group with a win, advances with a draw, almost certainly advances with a loss (>99%)

Uruguay scenarios: Could win group with a win, almost certainly advances with a draw (95%), eliminated with a loss

Spain seemed to remedy its goalless draw against Cape Verde with a resounding 4-0 win against Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, Uruguay repeated some of the same mistakes in a second straight disappointing draw. As a result, Spain is thinking about the next round while Uruguay needs to get a result against the European champions to stay alive.

La Roja almost certainly wins the group with a draw (only a Cape Verde four-goal victory against Saudi Arabia could change that), and a draw could suit Uruguay. Three points with an even goal differential puts the South Americans in a good position to advance.

This one doesn’t quite have the look of a match where neither team goes for it, though. Spain probably won’t want to settle for a draw, considering the pressure that came on the team after its opening match. Perhaps if it’s tied late, the teams could both settle in, but Spain will likely go on the front foot from the start, while Uruguay hopes to play on the counter.

Cape Verde vs. Saudi Arabia

Standings: Cape Verde (2 points, 3rd), Saudi Arabia (1 point, 4th)

Time: 8 p.m. ET

TV: FS1 (English), Universo (Spanish)

Venue: NRG Stadium, Houston

Cape Verde scenarios: Could win group with a win, almost certainly advances with a draw (97%), eliminated with a loss

Saudi Arabia scenarios: Almost certainly advances with a win (>99%), eliminated with a draw or loss

Cape Verde has been one of the best stories of this tournament as one of the surprise underdogs. What happens when the Blue Sharks aren’t underdogs anymore?

The odds are giving Cape Verde a teeny tiny edge against Saudi Arabia, but it’s virtually a pick ’em.

Saudi Arabia needs a win, which could allow the Blue Sharks to still play on the counter, but this is a very different matchup for two teams that have seen very little of the ball so far.

Group G

New Zealand vs. Belgium

Standings: Belgium (2 points, 3rd), New Zealand (1 point, 4th)

Time: 11 p.m. ET

TV: Fox (English), Universo (Spanish)

Venue: BC Place, Vancouver

Belgium scenarios: Could win group with a win, almost certainly advances with a draw (96%), eliminated with a loss

New Zealand scenarios: Advances with a win, eliminated with a draw or loss

Belgium is the biggest favorite of the day, but the Red Devils have failed to live up to any expectations so far. The draw against Egypt was one thing, but failing to score against Iran was a red flag.

New Zealand won’t offer a drastically different look than Iran, other than having size up top in 6-foot-3 Chris Wood when the Kiwis get out on the counter. With Jérémy Doku back in camp following the birth of his son, Belgium will hope the Manchester City winger is fit enough to play after missing the Iran game due to a respiratory illness. Doku could be the missing piece to unlock another team that will try to absorb pressure.

The Kiwis need a win to advance, but will still likely pick and choose their spots to go forward unless things get desperate late.

Egypt vs. Iran

Standings: Egypt (4 points, 1st), Iran (2 points, 2nd)

Time: 11 p.m. ET

TV: FS1 (English), Telemundo (Spanish)

Venue: Lumen Field, Seattle

Egypt scenarios: Wins group with a win, advances with a draw, almost certainly advances with a loss (>99%)

Iran scenarios: Could win group with a win, almost certainly advances with a draw (95%), eliminated with a loss

The Pharaohs are in the driver’s seat entering this match, but are not clear favorites. Both teams are plus-money to win, and this is viewed as the most likely draw in the odds.

Iran has two draws and would be thrilled to advance, given the adversity the team has faced in both the lead-up to and during this World Cup. A draw is probably enough to get Team Melli there. It could also be enough for Egypt to win the group.

It starts to make sense why the odds are the way they are, but there is a motivation to win this group. The group winner gets paired with the United States in a possible Round of 16 meeting. It’s normally not a first choice to take on a host country, but the other option is to be paired with defending champions Argentina in the same round.

Best bets

Mike Hume: Kylian Mbappé (-115) and Erling Haaland (+160) anytime goals (FanDuel)

I know there will be 20 other players on the pitch, but it really does feel like this is shaping up to be all about two of the greatest goal scorers going head-to-head. With both teams through to the knockout stage, there isn’t much to lose by chasing the top of the table in an all-out shootout. I can’t see Norway backing down from a chance to beat France, and I can’t see Mbappé willingly taking a back seat to Haaland in the goal-scoring department. Both sensational strikers scoring in this match feels like a Thanos-level inevitability.

Dan Santaromita: Senegal-Iraq over 3.5 goals, +138 (BetMGM)

Both teams must win to stay alive, and goal differential will matter. Senegal could use a two- or three-goal win and has already seen nine goals scored in its first two matches. Meanwhile, Iraq has allowed seven goals so far. The recipe is there for a 3-1, 4-0, 4-1 type of game.

Vik Chokshi: Senegal -1.5, -140 (DraftKings), Ismaïla Sarr anytime goal, +145 (DraftKings)

Basically, using the same train of thought Dan has, but going with a slightly safer bet here, at least in my eyes. Senegal is going to come out on fire in this one, and I can see them putting up goals early and often.

Sarr scored twice against Norway and generated five shot attempts. In a match where Senegal should score 2-4 goals, I like Sarr’s chances to get one, especially at this price.

Dean Jones: Norway-France both teams to score, -140 (Fanatics)

The flamboyant nature of some of the players on show in this one makes it hard to believe we are not in for a cracker. Norway will probably be reliant on individual brilliance, whereas France will try to win the ball back high up the pitch and show ruthless efficiency in front of goal. It should be fun.

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