Yemen: Al-Dhalea Under Heavy Houthi Offensive Amid Questions Over Timing , Efforts to Redraw Power Dynamics
ADEN – Since Monday evening, Houthi forces have launched a large-scale and intensive assault using various types of weaponry against positions held by southern forces in Yemen’s Al-Dhalea governorate, in an escalation that has gone beyond routine clashes and limited skirmishes to resemble a full-fledged military campaign aimed at breaching key defensive lines and overrunning the province.
The offensive coincided with the group’s declaration of a general mobilization and its pledge to reinforce all battlefronts with additional fighters and military support.
However, developments on the ground indicate that the main focus of the Houthi military effort has been concentrated in Al-Dhalea, while other strategically important fronts, including Marib and the remaining government-controlled areas of Taiz, have largely maintained relative calm and avoided major escalation, despite being regarded by many military assessments as more vulnerable.
The disparity between the different fronts has raised questions regarding the timing of the offensive against Al-Dhalea, particularly amid reports of repeated Saudi airstrikes on the governorate in recent months, a reduction in the role of military commanders originating from the area within operational commands and brigades, as well as alleged attempts to withdraw certain weapons and increase pressure on troops through worsening salary and logistical shortages.
Such developments have fueled speculation about possible indirect coordination, or at the very least regional acquiescence, toward Houthi efforts to weaken what is widely seen as one of the strongest political and military bastions of resistance on Yemen’s conflict map.
Despite the intensity of the fighting, Al-Dhalea considered the northern gateway to the protection of Aden has so far remained resilient, with its forces continuing to defend their positions while confronting simultaneous pressure from both their traditional Houthi adversaries and actors that had previously been regarded as allies.
Some geopolitical assessments suggest that the ongoing developments are part of broader efforts to reshape the balance of power in Yemen’s liberated areas and undermine the symbolic and military weight of Al-Dhalea through two parallel tracks.
The first aims to diminish the prospects of these forces realigning once again with the Southern Transitional Council (STC), thereby preventing the emergence of a more cohesive and influential southern political and military bloc.
The second seeks to pave the political ground for a final settlement between Riyadh and Sanaa, allowing both sides to reach direct understandings without having to pass through the southern issue or grant it a decisive role in shaping Yemen’s post-war political order.
As the battles continue, Al-Dhalea remains, in the eyes of many observers, more than just a military front. It represents a strategic stronghold and a political symbol whose fate could influence the future balance of power in Yemen and the contours of the settlement being prepared for the post-war era.