Ethiopia on the Brink – Ethiopia Insight

Ethiopia, despite unresolved border disputes, satisfies the legal conditions for statehood. It possesses a defined territory, a population exceeding 120 million, and a history of engaging in international relations through various governmental regimes.

However, fulfilling these formal criteria does not immunize a state from collapse. Ethiopia is now facing a growing crisis of governance that calls into question its continued ability to function as a state under international law.

Control Crisis

The central government’s inability to exert effective control in key regions—especially Amhara and Oromia—has resulted in an escalating breakdown of order. Frequent reports of anarchy, extrajudicial violence, and administrative paralysis indicate a descent into state failure.

According to Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International reports, the Ethiopian government has not only lost its monopoly on violence in many areas but has also been implicated in widespread human rights violations.

Among the Montevideo criteria, the requirement for an “effective government” is paramount. Historically, the Tinoco Arbitration Case illustrated that even authoritarian regimes can fulfill this requirement through mere control.

Yet, international law has since evolved. Modern interpretations stress that effective governance must go beyond administrative control—it must include adherence to international human rights standards.

Indexing Failure

Post-World War II legal developments, including the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and the core UN covenants, have shifted expectations. A state that cannot protect its citizens from mass atrocities or, worse, is complicit in them, risks losing legitimacy.

Control without accountability is no longer sufficient. A government’s effectiveness must now include normative obligations: to protect citizens from genocide, war crimes, crimes against humanity, and ethnic cleansing.

Ethiopia’s government effectiveness percentile in 2023 stood at only 24 percent, and it ranks 12th on the Fragile State Index with a score of 98.1—indicators of its weakening institutional capacity and increasing risk of failure. The loss of territorial control, rising ethnic conflict, and the erosion of human rights point to a government that no longer meets the modern threshold of effectiveness.

Philosophical Legitimacy

The philosophical foundation for modern statehood lies in the social contract theory articulated by Hobbes and Locke. Hobbes argued that government exists to prevent the chaos of the state of nature, providing order and security in exchange for citizens’ obedience.

Locke expanded this, emphasizing the protection of individual rights as a condition for legitimate governance. When a government violates this contract—by allowing lawlessness or abusing its citizens—it forfeits its legitimacy.

These Enlightenment principles are echoed in international legal frameworks like the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR), which imposes both positive and negative obligations on states: to protect fundamental rights and to refrain from violating them. Ethiopia, while a signatory to these instruments, has consistently failed to meet these obligations in practice.

Rights Crisis

A report from a joint investigation by the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission and the UN Human Rights Office on the northern armed conflict paints a damning picture. Their 2021 findings show that all major parties to the conflict—the Ethiopian National Defense Force, the Amhara Special Forces, Fano, and the Tigrayan Special Forces—committed egregious human rights violations. These included extrajudicial executions, torture, sexual and gender-based violence, and the enforced displacement of civilians.

Amnesty International highlighted the use of indiscriminate drone attacks in Merawi, labeling them as war crimes. Violent clashes have been rampant, particularly in Amhara, with human rights organizations documenting atrocities committed both by government forces and by the state’s failure to protect citizens from militia groups.

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In the face of such brutality, Ethiopia’s government has not only failed to maintain control but has abdicated its core responsibility: protecting its people from violence. By any modern interpretation of statehood, when a government fails to uphold fundamental human rights, it crosses into the realm of state failure.

Declining Legitimacy

The civil conflict between the TPLF and the central government, followed by the dismantling of regional security structures and violent crackdowns in Amhara, has deepened the crisis. The government’s decision to disband the region’s special forces and centralize power sparked further resistance, pushing Ethiopia closer to a Hobbesian state of nature.

The renewed conflict led to the deaths of thousands of civilians and fighters. As the violence dragged drone strikes in Gojjam on 23 April claimed the lives of over 100 civilians. Citizens lost their right to peace and security; freedom of movement was curtailed, and daily life came to a standstill.

Public trust has eroded, and state institutions are increasingly seen as agents of repression rather than protectors of rights.

Averting Collapse

Ethiopia may still meet the formal criteria of statehood under the Montevideo Convention, but it is failing the evolving, substantive standard of effective governance. A government that loses control, enables or commits atrocities, and fails to uphold basic human rights cannot be considered effective under modern international law.

Ethiopia’s trajectory illustrates a deepening statehood dilemma: the legal title of statehood persists, but the functional substance required to sustain it is eroding rapidly.

Without a renewed commitment to human rights and institutional reform, Ethiopia risks collapsing into a failed state in both theory and practice.

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While this commentary contains the author’s opinions, Ethiopia Insight will correct factual errors.

Main photo: 47th Anniversary of the Establishment of the Western Command of the Ethiopian National Defense Forces, May 2025, Nekemte, Ethiopia.

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