General Explains Sudden Spike In Terror Incidents

Dr. Joshua Bolarinwa, an Associate Professor and Head of the Division of Security and Strategic Studies at the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs (NIIA), remarked that Niger’s exit from the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) was neither unexpected nor abrupt.

In a post analyzing the strategic consequences of Niger’s withdrawal, Dr. Bolarinwa highlighted that the MNJTF—initially created in 1998 and later revitalized in 2015—had steadily expanded its operational scope to confront the escalating threat posed by the Boko Haram insurgency in the Lake Chad region.

He noted that the task force, which now comprises a reinforced contingent of approximately 10,000 troops, was established with the primary objective of dismantling Boko Haram, a militant organization responsible for a series of violent attacks across Nigeria and its neighboring states. Through coordinated offensives and intensified military engagements, the MNJTF succeeded in significantly diminishing the group’s capacity to operate.

Dr. Bolarinwa suggested that while the task force has achieved measurable success in curbing extremist violence, Niger’s decision may reflect shifting national priorities, evolving geopolitical considerations, or internal recalibrations of its regional security commitments.

“The MNJTF conducted its inaugural significant operation in 2016. Notwithstanding significant obstacles, it achieved substantial progress in combating the Boko Haram insurgency. With coordinated military actions, it liberated territories and hostages and successfully neutralised a significant number of Boko Haram insurgents, retrieved weapons, and dismantled several Boko Haram training camps. The efficacy of the MNJTF was acknowledged by the United Nations Department for Political Affairs for its successes in curbing the insurgency in the Lake Chad Basin

“The withdrawal of Niger from the MNJTF was not surprising, given the coup that took place on 26 July 2023. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) suspended and placed several sanctions on Niger. It is widely believed that, due to the ECOWAS sanctions, demands, conditions and the threat of using force on the junta if diplomacy fails, might have led to the withdrawal of its soldiers from the borders.

However, the head of the Nigerien military junta, General Abdourahamane Tchiani refuted the withdrawal from MNJTF by stating, that “Niger is still a member of MNJTF”. Niger is landlocked and shares boundaries with seven countries-Algeria to the north (951 km), Libya to the northeast (342 km), Chad to the east (1,196 km), Benin to the southwest (277 km), Burkina Faso to the south (622 km), Mali to the west (838 km), Nigeria to the south (1,608 km). The Nigeria-Niger border is the longest, which fosters interactions and interdependence in trade, security, and cultural exchanges.

The withdrawal of Niger from the MNJTF will create a void that may increase the level of terrorist and insurgency activity
“The absence of military patrols at the borders may provide Boko Haram and other insurgent groups, especially ISWAP with additional incentives to escalate their attacks. In fact, the absence of Niger will create a void, leading to an increase in attacks on the outskirts of Lake Chad and the influx of a substantial number of weapons and militants from the Sahel and ISIS, based in North Africa.

He commended the cordial and brotherly relations between Qatar and Nigeria, noting that the Qatari ambassador was aware of how seriously he regarded Qatar. He expressed Nigeria’s willingness to deepen bilateral ties.

According to Tinubu, the Qatari government had shown maturity and foresight in its efforts toward global peace, which deserved recognition. He expressed pride in Qatar’s contributions to peace, stability, human development, and prosperity. He added that, like Qatar, Nigeria faced the dual challenge of combating terrorism while supporting its neighbors, and emphasized that the country remained aware of its true allies and those assisting in addressing its challenges.

It was stated that Niger’s withdrawal from the MNJTF created a void that could significantly increase the risk of heightened terrorism and insurgency. The move was seen as undermining the progress made by the MNJTF and highlighting the ongoing need for regional cooperation in the face of evolving security threats.

The withdrawal was described as a major setback to current counter-terrorism and counterinsurgency efforts, with implications not only for the collective security framework but also for Niger’s own internal security, the safety of its neighbors, and the broader Sahel region. As a result, it was deemed essential to intensify diplomatic efforts, strengthen regional collaboration, and explore pathways for Niger’s reintegration to ensure cohesion and a more effective response to the security challenges.

Africa today News, New York