Electric vehicles accelerate SA’s public transport modernisation

The electrification of South Africa’s public transport sector has seen significant growth over the last year, boosted by increased electric bus procurement and long-term targets set by bus operators.

This is according to GreenCape’s 2025 electric vehicle (EV) market report, which states the South African EV market offers several emerging opportunities for local and international investors.

Four key sectors have been identified as particularly attractive for investment: electric passenger vehicles, electric buses, the electrification of freight and logistics, and the electrification of last-mile delivery.

Analysing the public transport sector, the report notes the cumulative market for electric buses is projected to reach 576 vehicles by 2030. By the end of 2024, the cumulative electric bus market in SA stood at 156 vehicles, with a market value of R1.1 billion.

Based on bus fleet operators that have made public announcements regarding electric bus rollout plans, sales are expected to grow by 420 buses between 2025 and 2030, or by R2.9 billion.

“The electric bus industry is the second-largest market for EVs by value, after passenger vehicles. There were approximately 66 000 (total) registered buses, bus trains and minibuses in SA at the end of 2024,” says the report.

“The South African bus market is dominated by an incumbent group of well-established operators, primarily represented by members of the Southern African Bus Operators Association, which accounts for over 20 000 operating buses. This strong presence of experienced operators creates a structured and consolidated market, making it easier to implement large-scale electrification initiatives, but also potentially posing challenges for new entrants due to the entrenched position of existing players.”

In June 2024, president Cyril Ramaphosa signed three transport-linked Bills into law, namely the National Land Transport Amendment Bill and the Economic Regulation of Transport Bill, as well as the Municipal Fiscal Powers and Functions Amendment Bill.

The National Land Transport Amendment Bill, among other objectives, seeks to amend the National Land Transport Act, 2009 to insert certain definitions and amend others, and provide for non-motorised and accessible transport.

The amendments bring the principal Act up to date with new developments and provide certain powers for provinces and municipalities to conclude contracts for public transport services.

The Department of Trade, Industry and Competition, together with National Treasury and the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources, is preparing for the implementation of the Electric Vehicle White Paper.

The new energy vehicle policy is expected to advance the country’s aspirations to be a global automotive hub.

Since GreenCape’s 2024 EV report, there have been several developments in the sector:

• Golden Arrow Bus Services (GABS) completed the first large-scale 120 electric commuter bus procurement in 2024. The buses will be delivered throughout 2025. As part of the rollout, GABS signed a memorandum of cooperation with Eskom for the introduction of EVs in the South African market, and will look into signing agreements with independent power producers to source electricity from renewable energy power plants.

• In August, Eskom launched a pilot project for 10 EV charging stations at five Eskom sites across SA, as well as the procurement of 20 electric light delivery vehicles and light trucks.

• In October, Flx EV introduced the first electric minibus taxi in SA at the Smarter Mobility Africa Summit in Johannesburg, with the intention to rollout more vehicles later this year.

• In November, the City of Cape Town awarded Volvo Group Southern Africa the tender to supply 30 low floor electric bus rapid transit buses for the MyCiTi fleet.

South Africa’s EV market is at an early but promising stage, offering substantial opportunities for growth and investment, says GreenCape.

EV prices have been decreasing over time due to falling lithium-ion cell prices globally and the scaling of EV production. Many original equipment manufacturers are introducing more affordable passenger EVs into the South African market.

By the end of 2024, the cumulative passenger EV market in SA reached 3 543 vehicles, with a total market value of R2.8 billion. Annual EV sales are expected to grow steadily, and the introduction of mid-range EV models is anticipated to drive further adoption between 2026 and 2030.

“Electric passenger vehicles have the highest growth opportunity, but are currently limited to the luxury vehicle market. The increased prevalence of mid-range EV models has the potential to increase the uptake of passenger EVs,” according to the latest EV report.

“Based on the current EV adoption rate of 1.9% in the luxury and high-end vehicle segment, it is projected that extending this rate to the mid-range segment could result in total EV sales of approximately 21 913 vehicles by 2030, with an estimated market value of R13.9 billion. The projected passenger EV fleet by the beginning of 2030 is 25 456 vehicles, representing 0.3% of the expected passenger vehicle population in SA.”

With the majority of passenger EVs sold falling into the luxury high-end category, vehicle performance characteristics play a crucial role in influencing consumer decisions, notes the report.

Analysis of passenger EV sales reveals the highest sales were recorded for vehicles with a top speed range of 180km/h to 200km/h.

Range anxiety remains a key concern for potential buyers in SA, even among those who can afford an EV. Sales data shows the most popular models were those with a battery range of 400km to 500km.

By the end of 2024, SA’s electric commercial vehicle market was projected to reach 172 vehicles, valued at R250 million. The market, which consists predominantly of freight and logistics vehicles, is expected to grow to 1 000 vehicles by 2030, with a value of R1.43 billion, according to the report.

“Between 2025 and 2030, an additional 828 EVs are expected in the commercial vehicle market, valued at R1.18 billion. This growth is driven by factors such as increasing affordability, rising fuel costs, pressure for decarbonisation, government incentives and improved infrastructure, all of which make EVs a more attractive and feasible option for the freight and logistics sectors.”