Old Fault Lines, New Allies: Opportunities, enduring challenges of Ethiopia-Somalia rapprochement
Addis Abeba –The December 2024 Ankara Declaration and subsequent diplomatic interactions signify a potentially pivotal juncture for the Horn of Africa. This budding rapprochement, however, is not without its complexities. While offering prospects for enhanced regional stability and cooperation, it simultaneously presents inherent risks, particularly concerning Somalia’s national sovereignty and territorial integrity. A rigorous and objective assessment of this evolving dynamic, with a keen focus on Ethiopia’s actions and their ramifications for Somalia’s internal cohesion, is therefore indispensable.
The burgeoning partnership between Ethiopia and Somalia finds a strong initial footing in their mutual struggle against the persistent threat of Al-Shabaab. The transnational nature of this extremist group necessitates a coordinated and sustained security response. Ethiopia’s significant contributions to the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) have been commendable, and the continuation and deepening of this security collaboration hold tangible potential for bolstering regional stability. Furthermore, the economic dimension of this rapprochement offers promising avenues for mutual benefit.
Ethiopia’s aspiration to diversify its access to international trade routes through Somali ports presents a compelling opportunity. This could alleviate Ethiopia’s reliance on Djibouti while simultaneously injecting much-needed economic stimulus into Somalia, fostering development and creating employment opportunities. The diplomatic engagement facilitated by Turkey, culminating in the Ankara Declaration, underscores a commitment to dialogue and peaceful resolution of differences, a crucial element for building trust and fostering long-term cooperation.
Navigating Sovereignty Minefield, Regional Dynamics
Despite the promising aspects, several significant weaknesses and potential pitfalls warrant careful scrutiny. Foremost among these is the issue of Somaliland. While the Ankara Declaration ostensibly affirmed Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, any actions perceived as lending legitimacy or support to Somaliland risk severely undermining this very principle and inflaming long-standing tensions. This delicate issue requires utmost sensitivity and a clear demonstration from Ethiopia that its engagement respects Somalia’s internationally recognized borders.
The presence of Ethiopian military forces within Somalia, while often framed as necessary for counterterrorism efforts, remains a sensitive subject. Striking a delicate balance between security cooperation and unwavering respect for Somalia’s national sovereignty is paramount. Any perceived overreach or unilateral action could fuel resentment and undermine the very partnership the rapprochement seeks to build.
Furthermore, concerns persist over alleged Ethiopian interference in Somalia’s internal political affairs, particularly through direct engagement with individual Federal Member States without the explicit consent or coordination of the Federal Government of Somalia. In December 2024, the Federal Government of Somalia issued a statement condemning what it described as a “blatant act of aggression” by Ethiopian forces in the town of Doolow, located in the Gedo region. If substantiated, such actions could heighten regional tensions and further fragment Somalia’s already complex political landscape.
Notwithstanding the challenges, genuine opportunities exist for building a sustainable and mutually beneficial partnership between Ethiopia and Somalia.”
The shifting geopolitical landscape in the Horn of Africa also presents a potential challenge. The evolving alliance between Ethiopia and Somalia could inadvertently provoke anxieties and rivalries among other regional actors, potentially leading to the emergence of new proxy conflicts and destabilizing the broader region.
Striking Delicate Balance in National Interests
For Somalia, safeguarding its hard-won sovereignty and territorial integrity remains a non-negotiable imperative. The Federal Government of Somalia faces the arduous task of navigating the complexities of security cooperation while steadfastly preserving national sovereignty and carefully managing its regional alliances. The issue of Somaliland demands a comprehensive and diplomatically nuanced resolution, one that upholds Somalia’s unity while addressing the legitimate concerns of the people in the northwest regions. The government must articulate a clear and consistent policy that prioritizes national interests while fostering constructive engagement with its neighbors.
Notwithstanding the challenges, genuine opportunities exist for building a sustainable and mutually beneficial partnership between Ethiopia and Somalia. Enhanced economic integration, facilitated by joint infrastructure projects, improved trade relations, and cross-border investments, can deliver tangible benefits to the citizens of both nations.
Furthermore, strengthened diplomatic engagement and a broader regional détente, potentially including Eritrea, could contribute significantly to long-term peace and stability in the Horn of Africa. Collaborative efforts in areas such as climate change adaptation, drought resilience, and combating transnational crime can further solidify this partnership and foster a sense of shared destiny.
Plea for Strategic Prudence, Unwavering Vigilance
The rapprochement between Ethiopia and Somalia holds considerable promise for fostering enhanced regional cooperation and addressing shared security threats. However, its long-term success hinges on the commitment of both nations to navigate the inherent complexities with strategic prudence and unwavering vigilance.
Ethiopia must consistently demonstrate an unshakeable respect for Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, refraining from any actions that could be perceived as undermining its unity or destabilizing the region. Somalia, in turn, must assert its sovereignty assertively while actively pursuing constructive and mutually beneficial engagement with its neighbor.
The enduring stability of the Horn of Africa will largely depend on the ability of Ethiopia and Somalia to cultivate a sustainable partnership built on the foundations of mutual respect, adherence to international law, and a shared commitment to regional peace and prosperity. Any missteps or miscalculations could easily reignite historical grievances and undermine the fragile progress achieved.
The international community bears a crucial responsibility in encouraging constructive dialogue, supporting diplomatic initiatives, and actively discouraging any actions that could escalate regional tensions. As a political analyst deeply invested in the stability of the Horn of Africa, the emphasis is placed on the importance of dialogue, mutual respect, and adherence to international law in the relationship between Ethiopia and Somalia. It is advocated that both nations prioritize these principles to foster peaceful and cooperative relations. Additionally, the critical role of the international community is underscored, particularly in supporting constructive engagement and discouraging actions that could heighten regional tensions. The future stability of the Horn of Africa is seen as dependent on the ability of Ethiopia and Somalia to build a sustainable and mutually beneficial partnership. AS
Abdinasir Ali Osman (Prof.) is a senior researcher, consultant, and trainer based in Mogadishu, Somalia, with more than 35 years of experience in the humanitarian, development, and institutional capacity-building sectors. He can be reached at [email protected]
Crédito: Link de origem