Citadel in Crisis: Ethiopia’s fractured calculus, search for stability under imperfect leadership

By Mohamud A. Ahmed

Addis Abeba – As I stepped beyond the bustling core of Jigjiga into its sprawling outskirts, the horizon unfolded like a canvas of possibility and peril—mirroring the vast ambiguities besieging Ethiopia. Clutched in my hand was Professor Abdi Ismail Samatar’s poignant essay, “Moving Beyond Africa’s Predatory Elite,” whose searing critique of the continent’s leadership haunted my thoughts. Borrowing a few of his insights, my reflections were inked with a newfound urgency: the quest for an indigenous and enduring solution to Ethiopia’s woes must rise above academic musings—it must become an imperative of survival.

In the annals of global history, few nations can boast a legacy unbroken by imperial conquest. Ethiopia stands defiantly among them, a citadel of ancient sovereignty. Yet today, its torment is not inflicted by foreign invaders but by the rot within—an elite class whose hunger for dominion has outpaced its loyalty to nationhood. As Africa marks seventy years since Sudan’s independence, Ethiopia’s paradox becomes all the more tragic: a proud civilization paralyzed by internal fractures, tethered by the ambitions of those who see leadership not as stewardship but as spoil.

In this tense political landscape, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s administration is not a savior but a flawed yet essential anchor amid instability. Supporting the current leadership is not an act of blind allegiance but a strategic choice for stability over collapse and coherence over chaos.

For in this epoch of centrifugal forces and fragility, imperfect leadership—if grounded in vision—is preferable to the tyranny of fragmentation. To paraphrase Thomas Hobbes, in the absence of a central authority, life becomes “solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short.”

Professor Samatar’s uncompromising critique of Africa’s ruling class resonates like an alarm bell. He describes a continent ensnared in a polynomial crisis—a grim equation composed of poverty, inequality, and ethical bankruptcy. In Ethiopia, this is more than theory—it is lived experience. Here, oligarchic factions feed on the marrow of the state, enriching themselves while the masses languish in the shadows of neglect.

If Ethiopia’s elite continues to prioritize sectional ambitions over collective progress, the nation will remain a fractured equation—an unstable numerator of competing desires divided by a denominator of betrayal. And mathematics teaches us an eternal truth: without a common denominator, an equation cannot hold. Ethiopia’s survival, therefore, hinges on unity—not as a slogan but as a political formula.

Imperfect Constant Amid Turbulence

In a continent where leadership is too often a flickering variable—revolutions devouring their children, regimes masquerading as democracies—Prime Minister Abiy represents a rare constant. His vision, though blemished by human error, offers a stabilizing force in a region teetering on the precipice.

To support him is not to sanctify every decision he makes but to recognize a rare political constant amid an environment riddled with volatility. As Archimedes proclaimed, “Give me a place to stand, and I shall move the earth.” Ethiopia’s precarious reality demands such a fulcrum—and the premier, with all his contradictions, may very well be that place.

Envision an Ethiopia liberated from the acoustics of war—where the clamor of conflict gives way to the hum of turbines and the melody of youthful laughter echoing through classrooms. Roads would not merely connect cities but unify identities, weaving together the highlands and the lowlands into a living mosaic of commerce and community. The Nile’s force, harnessed by dams, would illuminate not just villages but the imagination of a continent.

In this tense political landscape, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s administration is not a savior but a flawed yet essential anchor amid instability.”

Under the administration of Abiy, this vision need not remain a utopian fantasy. It becomes, instead, a blueprint for a renaissance—a national choreography where dialogue supplants destruction and economic synergy silences the saboteurs of unity. Ethiopia, if healed from within, could ascend as a geopolitical lighthouse, guiding the Horn of Africa through the stormy seas of uncertainty.

And with such transformation, a new narrative emerges—one in which Ethiopia is no longer a nation of perennial crises but a crucible of reconciliation, a phoenix rising from its own ashes. Let it be said then, as Churchill once declared in another context of struggle, “This is not the end; it is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”

Bitter Pill of Peace

Many will argue that backing the current leadership under Prime Minister Abiy in the midst of ongoing conflict is naïve—a romantic abstraction that avoids the brutal calculus of war. Yet this critique ignores a fundamental truth: peace is often bitter before it is beautiful. To reject the imperfect present without proposing a viable alternative is to gamble with the soul of a nation.

Some months back, I posited that the standoff between the federal government of Ethiopia and the Fano militia would yield no victor, only mutual exhaustion. That prediction stands. Before the fabric tears beyond repair, Ethiopia must seek an indigenous and principled path—a way forward grounded in reconciliation, not retribution.

Violence, as history reminds us, is the opiate of failed leadership. The question then becomes not whether we oppose war but whether we are courageous enough to embrace its antidote—dialogue. Our hesitation to choose this arduous path is not strategic caution; it is moral procrastination. The longer we defer peace, the more costly it becomes.

Oxfam’s grim data—that the wealthiest 1% in West Africa absorb 90% of income—rings painfully true in Ethiopia. Here, wealth and privilege are the monopolies of a few while the multitudes endure systemic deprivation. The social contract, once envisioned as mutual uplift, has been rewritten as a ledger of exploitation.

The current administration’s campaign to liberalize the economy and dismantle monopolies is a crucial recalibration of this broken arithmetic. It is not without its flaws—but it is a necessary intervention. If we fail to redistribute opportunity and dismantle institutional greed, Ethiopia will regress into a medieval algebra of conquest—where one group’s gain must come at another’s expense.

As James Baldwin once said, “The most dangerous creation of any society is the man who has nothing to lose.” Let us not nurture that danger by refusing to solve our inequality equation.

At this historical crossroads, Ethiopia faces a binary choice: unite behind the leadership of a man who, despite his flaws, offers continuity and vision—or plunge headlong into the abyss of tribalism and nihilistic paralysis. The terrain ahead is rugged, the path uncertain, but forward is the only direction that does not lead to annihilation.

Leadership, as Nelson Mandela once eloquently asserted, is not about being in charge—it is about caring for those entrusted to your charge. The Prime Minister and his administration may not be perfect, but his leadership holds the possibility of transcending old divisions and forging a new Ethiopia—one not shackled by its past but inspired by it.

Nation-building, like calculus, is an unforgiving endeavor. But if Ethiopians can solve for unity, resilience, and shared destiny—rather than perfection—they will have solved for survival. In so doing, perhaps Africa might one day look to Ethiopia not as an enigma wrapped in chaos but as an equation finally balanced. AS

Mohamud A. Ahmed (Prof.) is a columnist, political analyst, and researcher at Greenlight Advisors Group, Somali Region State.

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