Why Tony Elumelu isn’t a dollar billionaire yet

Key Points

• His net worth is speculated at $2.15 billion, but Forbes remains the recognized authority—anything else is just guesswork.
• Heirs Energies, a key part of Elumelu’s wealth, is likely overvalued, with conservative estimates placing it below $500 million.
• With insider loan restrictions tightening, Elumelu’s $1.7 billion debt to UBA may pose compliance risks under Nigeria’s central bank rules.

For years, Tony Elumelu has been recognized as one of Africa’s most influential businessmen, known for his investments in banking, power, and oil and gas. Recent reports have speculated that his net worth stands at $2.15 billion, but Forbes remains the only recognized authority in wealth rankings—anything else is just speculation.

While the figure seems impressive, a closer look at the numbers tells a different story. Liabilities, asset valuations, and financial disclosures all paint a more complicated picture, making it clear that Elumelu is not yet a confirmed dollar billionaire.

The biggest issue is a common misunderstanding: mistaking total assets for net worth. The widely circulated $2.15 billion figure is based on an inflated valuation of Heirs Energies, his privately held oil and gas company. By overstating his assets, the narrative of Elumelu as a billionaire gains traction. But net worth isn’t just about assets—it also accounts for debt.

The debt factor

Net worth follows a simple formula: total assets minus total liabilities. This principle is applied across global wealth rankings, from Bloomberg’s Billionaires Index to Forbes’ Real-Time Billionaires List. For example, Bloomberg values Elon Musk at $314 billion, but they also factor in his $23.2 billion in liabilities to present an accurate picture of his finances.

In Elumelu’s case, the numbers tell a different story. An insider at United Bank for Africa (UBA), where he serves as chairman, reveals that he has debt obligations totaling $1.7 billion. These loans—primarily drawn from UBA—were used to expand Heirs Holdings and its subsidiaries, particularly Heirs Energies. The scale of this debt raises concerns, not just for Elumelu but also for the bank, given regulatory restrictions on insider loans.

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has tightened its rules to curb conflicts of interest in bank lending. Under the new guidelines, directors with non-performing loans must either step down or bring their debts within regulatory limits. The CBN caps insider loans to individual directors at 5 percent of a bank’s paid-up capital, while total insider-related lending must stay below 10 percent. With $1.7 billion owed to UBA, Tony Elumelu’s financial exposure goes well beyond these limits, leaving him in a challenging position.

Breaking down his assets

To get a clearer picture, it’s important to examine Elumelu’s holdings. Some reports include Transcorp Power and Transcorp Hotels in his valuation—leading to double counting—but the focus should be on his stake in Transnational Corporation Plc (Transcorp). Through HH Capital Limited, he owns 29.5 percent of Transcorp, currently worth N153 billion ($100 million).

His banking asset is his 7.43 percent stake in UBA, which amounts to 2.35 billion shares spread across Heirs Holdings Limited, HH Capital Limited, and Heirs Alliance Limited. At today’s market value, his UBA shares are worth N94 billion ($61 million). Together, his stakes in Transcorp and UBA add up to $161 million.

A review of United Capital’s latest annual report confirms that Elumelu holds no direct or indirect stake in the company, despite claims. Similarly, Africa Prudential, spun off from UBA in 2012, operates independently with no disclosed shareholding from him.

The overvaluation of private assets

The billionaire claim largely hinges on Heirs Energies, the crown jewel of Elumelu’s unlisted assets. Some estimates value the company at $1.75 billion, but that figure appears inflated. A more conservative estimate places it closer to $500 million—and even that might be generous.

Forbes and Bloomberg apply as much as a 40 percent discount on private Nigerian assets due to country risk, liquidity challenges, and political volatility. This method has been used in valuing other Nigerian billionaires. Additionally, neither publication assigns a valuation to assets still burdened by large debts—one reason Aliko Dangote’s refinery wasn’t factored into his net worth until its financial obligations were settled.

Beyond Heirs Energies, other assets attributed to Elumelu include cash holdings of $50 million, a real estate portfolio valued at $75 million, and his stake in Heirs Insurance, estimated at $28 million. However, given that Heirs Insurance recorded a gross written premium of only $20 million in 2023, the valuation appears ambitious.

Billionaire in strategy, but not in net worth

There’s no doubt that Tony Elumelu is one of Africa’s most strategic business leaders. His influence in banking, energy, and investment is undeniable, and his leadership has shaped some of Nigeria’s most prominent companies. But being a billionaire isn’t just about impressive investments—it requires financial solvency.

With $1.7 billion in debt, Elumelu’s true net worth falls well below the $2.15 billion mark reported by some sources. While he may reach billionaire status in the future, for now, his fortune remains in the high hundreds of millions.

When adjusted for debt and more realistic asset valuations, a different picture emerges—one that places Elumelu below the half-a-billion-dollar threshold. His wealth is substantial, and his impact on Africa’s business landscape is unquestionable. But in finance, perception can be powerful, yet numbers don’t lie. Until his debt burden is reduced and his private assets gain clearer liquidity, Elumelu remains just short of true billionaire status.