Ethiopia’s Political Crossroads: The TPLF Split and Its Regional Implications

By: Sophonias A. KassaEthiopia is experiencing one of the most turbulent periods in its modern history, marked by deep political and social turmoil. The Ethiopian people have endured relentless crises, moving from one devastating challenge to another, with no clear resolution in sight. Over the past six years, under the leadership of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, the country has been plagued by widespread violence, political instability, and severe humanitarian crises. The scale and severity of the suffering are alarming, leaving many Ethiopians disillusioned about the nation’s future and the prospects for peace and stability.

While the entire country faces uncertainty, the situation in northern Ethiopia has been particularly grave. This region has been the epicenter of some of Ethiopia’s most intense conflicts, resulting in widespread displacement, loss of life, and a deepening humanitarian crisis. The ongoing instability has left the population in a state of vulnerability, with urgent calls for intervention to prevent further deterioration.The TPLF Split: A Fractured Political LandscapeThe Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), once a dominant political force in Ethiopia, is now deeply fractured, with internal divisions that could shape the future of the Tigray region. Two distinct factions have emerged within the party—one led by Debretsion Gebremichael, the long-standing chairman, and another by Getachew Reda, the head of the Interim Regional Administration of Tigray (IRAT). This split is more than a mere power struggle; it represents a fundamental ideological and governance battle over the future of Tigray itself.

Debretsion Gebremichael leads the hardline faction of the TPLF, a group that firmly believes in maintaining Tigray’s autonomy at all costs. His supporters argue that federal intervention in Tigray’s governance is a continuation of the oppression that led to the devastating war between TPLF forces and the Ethiopian government. They insist that unless Tigray remains self-reliant and free from Addis Ababa’s influence, its people will never achieve true security. This defiance was evident in August 2024, when his faction spearheaded the 14th party congress despite legal warnings from the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE). By holding the congress, his camp made a bold statement that Tigray would govern itself on its own terms.

On the other hand, Getachew Reda offers a markedly different vision for Tigray. As the leader of the region’s transitional administration, he has taken a pragmatic approach, acknowledging the harsh reality of Tigray’s post-war devastation. He argues that cooperation with the Ethiopian federal government is necessary to facilitate reconstruction, ensure the distribution of humanitarian aid, and revive the region’s economy. His administration has actively engaged in peace efforts and has shown a willingness to implement the Pretoria Agreement, the deal that formally ended the Tigray War in November 2022. While this approach has won him favor in Addis Ababa and among international actors, it has made him unpopular among hardline Tigrayan nationalists who view any collaboration with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed as a betrayal of Tigray’s struggle.The Future of Tigray: A Region at a Crossroads

With two competing factions locked in a bitter power struggle, Tigray’s future remains uncertain. If the Interim Regional Administration (IRAT) collapses, several potential scenarios could unfold, each carrying serious consequences for the region and beyond.

A power vacuum could emerge, leaving the region leaderless at a time when stability is desperately needed. Without a functioning administration, governance could collapse, humanitarian aid distribution could stall, and reconstruction efforts could grind to a halt.

More dangerously, the ongoing political struggle could escalate into open conflict, leading to further violence in a region that has already suffered immense devastation. Debretsion’s camp, emboldened by grassroots support, may attempt to reclaim governance by force, while Getachew’s faction, backed by federal authorities, could resist, turning the dispute into an internal war within Tigray itself.

Meanwhile, the Ethiopian government may use this opportunity to extend its influence over Tigray, positioning itself as the stabilizing force. However, such a move would likely be perceived by Tigrayan nationalists as yet another act of oppression, potentially reigniting tensions that have yet to be fully resolved.

The Broader Regional Implications

Tigray’s internal fractures do not exist in isolation. Neighboring Eritrea has long viewed the TPLF as a strategic threat, and a divided Tigray plays to Asmara’s advantage. The Eritrean government may seek to further weaken Tigray to prevent it from regaining regional influence. However, prolonged instability in Tigray could also create new security threats along the Eritrean border, potentially leading to a refugee crisis or renewed cross-border tensions.

At the same time, other armed actors within Ethiopia continue to challenge the federal government. The Amhara Fano militia, engaged in an escalating conflict with federal forces, sees the current situation as an opportunity to assert its territorial claims in contested areas such as Welkait and Raya. The Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) remains a persistent insurgency in Oromia, further complicating Ethiopia’s internal security landscape.

Ethiopia’s Maritime Ambitions and Rising Geopolitical Tensions

Beyond its internal struggles, Ethiopia’s foreign policy ambitions are also generating regional instability. Ethiopia’s pursuit of sea access, particularly its contentious agreement with Somaliland and its recent assertion of military action to seize control of the Eritrean port of Assab, has significantly heightened tensions. This move has already provoked strong opposition from Somalia, which views it as a violation of its sovereignty. Furthermore, Turkey and Egypt, both deeply invested in the power dynamics of the Horn of Africa, have expressed concern over Ethiopia’s growing maritime ambitions.

Adding another layer of complexity, Eritrea has recently invited Saudi Arabia to expand its strategic presence in the Red Sea. This move could shift the regional balance of power, potentially strengthening Eritrea’s ties with Saudi Arabia while further straining Ethiopia’s relationship with Riyadh. Given Saudi Arabia’s influence in both Gulf and African affairs, this development could diplomatically isolate Ethiopia and deepen its geopolitical challenges. If Ethiopia continues to aggressively pursue its maritime ambitions, it risks entangling itself in a broader geopolitical confrontation, not only with its immediate neighbors but also with influential external powers, further destabilizing the region.

A Critical Moment for EthiopiaEthiopia now stands at a defining moment in its history. The TPLF split represents more than just an internal political dispute—it is a reflection of the broader tensions between federalism and regional autonomy, between cooperation and resistance, and between reconstruction and continued conflict.

If Debretsion’s faction prevails, Tigray is likely to remain in confrontation with the federal government, possibly pushing for greater autonomy or even full independence. If Getachew’s faction consolidates power, the region could enter a phase of rebuilding and economic recovery, though at the cost of nationalist ambitions.Escalation in Adigrat and the Looming Crisis

Recent events underscore the gravity of the crisis. Just yesterday, the streets of Adigrat, a historically significant town in northern Tigray, became the latest battleground in this escalating conflict. Forces aligned with Debretsion Gebremichael took control, displacing officials appointed by Getachew Reda’s administration. What began as a political dispute has now turned into direct confrontations, further threatening the fragile stability of Tigray.

The takeover was met with fierce resistance, resulting in violent clashes that left multiple people injured. The wounded were rushed to Hyder Hospital, highlighting the tangible cost of this political struggle. In response, Getachew Reda issued an urgent appeal to the international community and the Ethiopian government, warning that the situation could spiral out of control without immediate intervention.

For the people of Tigray, the stakes have never been higher. With tensions rising and neither faction willing to back down, the region faces a defining moment—one that could either lead to intensified conflict or a last-ditch effort at reconciliation. The decisions made in the coming months will shape not only Tigray’s future but also the fate of Ethiopia as a whole.