El Niño enhanced rains support recovery despite flooding and high food prices
Key Messages
- The cumulatively above-average October to December short rains have had mixed impacts across Kenya. The rains have increased agricultural production activities and labor opportunities and enhanced pasture, forage, and water resources supporting livestock production. However, flooding has affected approximately 93,000 households, displaced 58,000, and resulted in 26 fatalities in the pastoral areas, particularly in the northeast. The national and county governments and humanitarian actors continue to provide food and non-food assistance to flood-affected households, although damaged infrastructure has hampered the response. According to estimates by WFP’s Advanced Disaster Analysis and Mapping (ADAM), around 640,600 hectares of land were flooded in northern and northeast Kenya, of which around 18,284 hectares were cropland.
- In the pastoral areas, area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist in Turkana, Marsabit, and Mandera and among households still recovering from the drought and the widespread flooding. Despite the flood impacts, the rains have supported improvements in livestock production and household access to milk as livestock remains in wet season grazing areas, and milk production has increased. The increased access to milk for sale and consumption and significantly above-average livestock prices maintain household purchasing power against the high staple food prices as indicated by favorable average to above-average goat-to-maize terms of trade. The current favorable conditions are expected to persist until the start of the forecast above average 2024 March to May long rains, which will likely support further improvements in livestock production, household access to food and income, facilitating area-level Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes over the February to May 2024 period.
- The marginal agricultural areas are currently Stressed (IPC Phase 2) as the above-average short rains drive increased crop production activities, improving agricultural wage labor opportunities and incomes to near-average levels. Cereals are in good condition; however, water logging has negatively impacted pulses. Above-average staple food prices continue to constrain household food access, forcing households to apply livelihood and consumption-based coping strategies. In December, short-cycle crop harvests are expected to improve food availability and consumption through February, after which the main harvests become available, driving a return to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes, with worst affected areas likely to be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in the February to May outlook period.
Credit: Source link