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Malawi
Key Messages
- Several districts in southern and central Malawi are anticipated to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) due to the rapid depletion of food stocks from own-production, limited access to agricultural labor, and above-average prices for food and basic non-food commodities, particularly maize, which are further compounded by below-average winter production. Rising inflation and worsening terms of trade have reduced the purchasing power of poor and very poor households, limiting their access to sufficient food. In contrast, some districts in the central and northern regions are expected to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes due to increased food access from their own harvests and sales of cash crops.
- The Malawi lean season response is expected to begin in October 2024, and resource mobilization efforts have been underway since the El Niño appeal in March 2024. The response will start in the southern part of Malawi, specifically in Blantyre, Mwanza, and Neno districts, targeting around 1.3 million people. According to the Department of Disaster Management Affairs (DoDMA), out of the proposed 200 million USD, the government and stakeholders (including WFP) have mobilized nearly 100 million USD, about 50 percent of the required resources. This amount equates to 161,576 MT maize equivalent, which is about 40 percent below the required 261,574 MT. Providing timely humanitarian assistance will likely prevent worsening food insecurity outcomes.
- The national average price of maize is 686 MWK/kg, marking a 10 percent increase over the last month, a 30 percent increase over the previous year, and a 130 percent increase over the five-year average. Maize grain prices are particularly high in the Lower Shire livelihood zone, reaching 820 MWK/kg due to significantly reduced crop production levels. Additionally, according to the National Statistical Office, inflation in June 2024 stands at 33.3 percent, with food inflation at 41.5 percent. This rising inflation will continue to erode households’ purchasing power for food commodities, especially maize grain, thereby reducing food access.
- The availability of agricultural labor and other income sources are below average, resulting in below-average income among poor and very poor households and inadequate access to staple foods. The winter/irrigated production – a typical source of labor opportunities for many poor households – has been affected by below-average rainfall, leading to low water levels and reduced river flows. The third round Agricultural Production Estimates Survey (APES) for the 2023/24 season reported a decrease in winter/irrigated production due to impacts of El Niño, which, combined with high input costs, have further diminished irrigation and winter production prospects. Additionally, the FEWS NET Own Off-Farm Income (OOFI) survey for May 2024 indicates that the availability of non-agricultural labor, including activities like firewood sales and construction work, is expected to be below average, further constraining income.
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